Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
